Stocks‐to‐use ratios and prices as indicators of vulnerability to spikes in global cereal markets
研究了主要谷物的库存使用比以及总热量指数作为价格飙升脆弱性指标的有效性，发现后者在价格看似正常时能预警风险，库存数据可补充价格信息。
Abstract We identify critical stocks‐to‐use ratios (SURs) for major grains and for an index of total calories from these grains. The latter appears to be a promising indicator of vulnerability to large price spikes when the current price shows no cause for concern. More generally, our results suggest that stocks data, though no doubt unreliable, can be valuable complements to price data as indicators of vulnerability to shortages and price spikes.