Oil and the Great Moderation
评估了1980年代中期以来美国宏观经济稳定性增强在多大程度上可由石油冲击和石油产出弹性的变化解释，发现石油相关效应解释了约三分之一的波动下降。
We assess the extent to which the greater US macroeconomic stability since the mid-1980s can be accounted for by changes in oil shocks and the oil elasticity of gross output. We estimate a DSGE model and perform counterfactual simulations. We nest two popular explanations for the Great Moderation: smaller (non-oil\link real shocks and better monetary policy. We find that oil played an important role in the stabilisation. Around half of the reduced volatility of inflation is explained by better monetary policy alone, and 57% of the reduced volatility of GDP growth is attributed to smaller TFP shocks. Oil related effects explain around a third. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.