Transactions Costs, Extent of Inefficiencies, Entries and Multiple Wagers in a Racetrack Betting Model
扩展了HZR的赛马博彩系统,使其适用于不同赛道和初始财富,并分析了交易成本、多重投注及低效率程度,帮助投资者判断市场何时变得有效。
In a previous paper (Management Science, December 1981) Hausch, Ziemba and Rubinstein (HZR) developed a system that demonstrated the existence of a weak market inefficiency in racetrack place and show betting pools. The system appeared to make possible substantial positive profits. To make the system operational, given the limited time available for placing bets, an approximate regression scheme was developed for the Exhibition Park Racetrack in Vancouver for initial betting wealth between $2500 and $7500 and a track take of 17.1%. This paper: (1) extends this scheme to virtually any track and initial wealth level; (2) develops a modified system for multiple horse entries; (3) allows for multiple bets; (4) analyzes the effects of the track take and breakage on profits; (5) presents recent results using this system; and (6) considers the extent of the inefficiency, i.e., how much can be bet before the market becomes efficient?