Money Demand Predictability
评估了多种货币需求模型对1970年代中期至1983年狭义货币行为的预测能力，发现传统模型在解释1982-1983年M1流通速度下降方面表现不佳，质疑了货币需求的可预测性。
The performance of empirical money demand equations over the past decade raises serious questions about money demand predictability. A variety of specifications were presented to explain past episodes of apparent money demand instability, but their success in predicting future money demand is limited in most instances. In particular, the unprecedented decline in the velocity of Ml during 1982 and 1983 was not captured fullyby any of the previously-modified conventional specifications. This paper evaluates a variety of the approaches and specifications proposed inprevious money demand studies to explain the behavior of the narrowly defined money stock from the mid 1970's through 1983. The empirical results cast doubt on the appropriateness of the conventional money demand specification in both the pre- and post- 1974 periods.