Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement
利用1969-1972年美国社保福利意外增长20%的自然实验，构建模型区分预期与非预期福利变化对退休年龄的不同影响，并基于纵向退休历史调查数据估计模型。
Between 1969 and 1972, real U.S. social security retirement benefits rose by 20%. The rise was unanticipated and followed over 15 years of relatively constant real benefits. This paper proposes a model of retirement behaviour in which workers respond differently, although in a theoretically consistent manner, to the anticipated and unanticipated components of the social security benefit they can receive upon retirement. The retirement age decision in the presence of unanticipated benefit changes is shown to be a special case of utility maximization under a nonlinear budget constraint. The model is estimated using the Longitudinal Retirement History Survey.