On the Possibility of Continuing Expansion of Finite Resources
论证了技术进步提高自然资源开采和使用效率,使得有限资源的有效剩余供应可能比两个世纪前更大,但服务消费最终将趋于零。
SUMMARY Because technological change increases the efficiency of the extraction and use of natural resources it is shown that, despite the accelerated use of the world's finite resources since the Industrial Revolution, it is very possible that their effective remaining supply, measured in terms of the services they are still capable of providing in the future, is greater today than it was, say, two centuries earlier. In this paper it is shown that, paradoxically, measured in terms of their prospective contributions to human welfare, the available quantity of the world's exhaustible resources may rise forever, year after year. However, even though they may never approach disappearance, the consumption of their services will eventually have to decline and, ultimately, approach zero asymptotically.