Neglected Method of Separating Demand and Supply in Time Series Regression
指出在许多市场中,短期数量由需求决定而价格由供给决定,但该模型隐含的动态约束在实证研究中被广泛忽视。通过通胀与失业、贸易条件与贸易余额两个例子,说明仅用滞后价格和滞后数量分别设定需求与供给函数即可分离二者。
This article argues that in many markets, quantity is demand determined in the short run but price is supply determined, and that the dynamic restrictions between price and quantity implied by the model have been widely neglected in empirical research. Two examples illustrate our point—the demand and supply relationships between inflation and unemployment and between the terms of trade and the trade balance. In both, specifying quantity as a function of lagged prices in demand and price as a function of lagged quantities in supply (rather than concentrating on exogenous shift determinants) is sufficient to separate demand and supply.