Optimal Sequential Selection in Capital Budgeting: A Shortcut
针对资本预算中的序贯决策问题，提出一种比传统决策树分析更简单直观的解析方法，并通过数值例子展示其效率。
M In finance textbooks where capital budgeting topics are covered, problems involving sequential decisions are typically solved using the decision-tree approach.' This approach requires evaluations of all possible outcomes resulting from each sequence of decisions. Textbook examples of the decision-tree analysis are often simple enough to allow the reader to follow all the required calculations and to visualize the rationale underlying the decision process. However, when applied to problems where numerous alternative decision scenarios must be evaluated, the analysis can be quite tedious, and the computational and analytical complexity often tends to mask the intuition underlying the decisions. Therefore, there is a need for a simpler and more intuitive approach.2 In what follows, a sequential decision problem is first formulated and then a simple analytical solution is provided. A numerical example is also presented to illustrate the analytical efficiency and the intuitive nature of our approach in comparison with the decisiontree analysis.