Evidence on the Accuracy of Merger Simulations
用并购前后数据直接估计价格效应，与结构模型模拟结果对比，发现模拟在一种情况下高估、另一种情况下低估价格效应，并探讨了原因。
Abstract This paper evaluates the efficacy of a structural model of oligopoly used for merger review. Using premerger data, we estimate several demand systems and use a static Bertrand model to simulate the price effects of two mergers. Using pre- and postmerger data, we directly estimate the price effects. The direct estimates imply that one merger resulted in moderate price increases, while the second left prices essentially unchanged. While some simulations are similar to the directly estimated price effects, overall simulations overstate the price effects in one case and understate them in the other. Explanations for the discrepancies are explored.