Information Cost and Innovation Adoption Policies
研究企业经理在面临不确定盈利的创新时,如何通过等待免费信息或购买额外信息来优化采纳决策,发现最优政策可能不具备保留性质,即随着成功概率上升,政策会在等待、购买和采纳之间反复切换。
A firm's manager must decide whether to adopt an innovation of uncertain profitability or to obtain some information and then decide to adopt or reject the innovation. Obtaining information can involve either waiting to receive some costless information or buying some additional information as well. The optimal policy for this decision problem may not have a reservation property. That is as the probability of success rises from 0 to 1, the optimal policy may be: wait, buy, wait, buy, and adopt. This suggests a complexity in managerial decision-making regarding innovations of uncertain profitability when there are both costless and costly information sources available to the manager.