The Decline in U.S. Output Volatility
分析1980年代中期以来美国产出波动性下降的原因，发现库存技术变革无法解释大部分下降，而“更好的政策”和“好运气”可能是更重要的因素。
Explanations for the decline in U.S. output volatility since the mid-1980s include: "better policy," "good luck," and technological change. Our multiple-break estimates suggest that reductions in volatility since the mid-1980s extend not only to manufacturing inventories, but also to sales. This finding, along with a concentration of the reduction in the volatility of inventories in materials and supplies and the lack of a significant break in the inventory–sales covariance, imply that new inventory technology cannot account for most of the decline in output volatility.