Probability and Time Trade-Off
研究了决策中概率与时间两个维度的权衡，定义了风险距离和时间距离，并证明若两者线性权衡，则偏好可由价值函数、概率贴现率和心理距离函数刻画，解释了常见比率效应和量级效应。
Probability and time are integral dimensions of virtually any decision. To treat them together, we consider the prospect of receiving outcome x with a probability p at time t. We define risk and time distance, and show that if these two distances are traded off linearly, then preferences are characterized by three functions: a value function, a probability discount rate function, and a psychological distance function. The concavity of the psychological distance function explains the common ratio and common difference effects. A decreasing probability discount rate accounts for the magnitude effect. The discount rate and the risk premium depend on the shape of these three functions. This paper was accepted by Peter Wakker, decision analysis.