Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence
利用贝叶斯方法估计马尔可夫转换新凯恩斯模型，发现美国在沃尔克反通胀后和1970年前货币政策更激进，1984年后大部分时期处于低波动体制，并将不同体制的时间与通胀持续性指标联系起来。
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a Markov-switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model that allows shifts in the monetary policy reaction coefficients and shock volatilities with U.S. data. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy regime was in place after the Volcker disinflation and before 1970 than during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Our estimates also indicate that a low-volatility regime has been in place during most of the sample period after 1984. We connect the timing of the different regimes to a measure of inflation persistence.