Unanticipated Money and the Political Business Cycle
分析1960至1984年美国货币增长预测误差，检验当局是否在选举年通过意外增加货币来刺激经济，发现整体无证据，但1974年前可能有过尝试。
Six different series of one-period forecasts for money growth are generated for each year, 1960 through 1984. The prediction errors are analyzed to see whet herthe authorities attempted to expand the economy in election years by unexpectedly raising money growth. While there is no evidence of attempts to fool the public throughout the entire 1960-84 period, such fooling may have been tried through 1974. It is speculated that the public discussion of expectations formation and of politicians' motivations since then may have signaled officials that further attempts to mislead the public would be prohibitively costly. Copyright 1986 by Ohio State University Press.