Does Arbitraging Matter? Spatial Trade Models and Discriminatory Trade Policies
指出,在建模歧视性贸易政策(如针对性禁运或补贴)时,若不明确设定关于同时进出口的套利假设,可能得出误导性结论。作者提出一种替代的空间模型,允许研究者明确纳入自己的套利假设,并以1980年美国对苏联禁运为例展示其表现。
Abstract When modeling discriminatory trade policies, such as targeted embargoes or targeted subsidies, failure to explicitly include assumptions about the possibility of simultaneous exporting and importing may yield misleading results. Nonlinear programming and “vector sandwich” models implicitly set rules regarding arbitraging which may be at variance with actual policies and/or country behavior. The paper introduces an alternative spatial model which allows the researcher to explicitly incorporate her own assumptions about arbitraging. An analysis of the 1980 U.S. embargo to the USSR shows how the proposed model performs relative to the most frequently used spatial trade models.