The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil
构建了巴西美元黑市的局部均衡模型，分析官方汇率、利差和旅游季节性因素如何决定黑市溢价，并验证了理性预期下未来汇率变动对当前溢价的影响。
The model of the black market for dollars focuses on the interaction of portfolio decisions relevant to the holding of asset stocks and the determinants of net flows of dollars associated with tourism and smuggling. A partial-equilibrium model of the black market shows that the level of the premium is determined by the official real exchange rate and the official, depreciation-adjusted interest differential, as well as seasonal factors associated with tourism. Expectations of future exchange rate changes, under rational expectations, are shown to affect the current level of the black market premium. The empirical evidence provides ample support for the role of the key determinants of the premium as well as for an important seasonal pattern. The magnitude of the seasonal variation is evidence of the imperfect substitutability between black dollars and cruzeiro assets in portfolios.