A Simple Test of Abortion and Crime
重复了Donohue和Levitt关于堕胎与犯罪率的研究,发现堕胎率与四种犯罪指标中的两种符号相反且均不显著,利用1973年堕胎合法化后的州际和队列差异,也未发现堕胎与年龄别犯罪率之间存在有意义关联。
I first replicate Donohue and Levitt's results for violent and property crime arrest rates. I apply their data and specification to an analysis of age-specific homicide rates and murder arrest rates. The coefficients on the abortion rate have the wrong sign for two of the four measures of crime and none is statistically significant at conventional levels. I then use the legalization of abortion in 1973 to exploit two sources of variation: between-state changes in abortion rates before and after Roe, and cross-cohort differences in exposure to legalized abortion. I find no meaningful association between abortion and age-specific crime rates. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.