Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty
估计了欧盟共同农业政策改革对耕地作物的保险效应和财富效应，基于意大利专业化农场的样本数据，模拟了改革对农民产出反应的影响。
The size of the insurance and wealth effects of a change in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for arable crops is estimated. The impact of price uncertainty is accounted for in the specific decision‐making structure of the European Union (EU) arable crop producers under nonlinear mean‐variance risk preferences. A system of output supply, input demand, and land allocation equations is estimated on a sample of Italian specialized arable crop farms. The simulation of the impact of the recent reforms confirms that farmers' output responses are consistently affected by the size of the insurance and wealth effects.