Local and National Determinants of Office Vacancies
利用美国20个城市30多年的数据，分解写字楼空置率的方差，发现均衡水平主要由本地因素决定，但市场冲击存在跨城市同期相关性，且所有市场均表现出显著持续性。
A model of vacancy rate determination is estimated using over 30 years of data for 20 U.S. office markets. The variances of individual city office vacancy rates are decomposed into common, time-varying components and city-specific fixed effects. City-specific persistence terms are also included to allow for lagged adjustment toward equilibrium. Three striking results are obtained. First, we find that the level of equilibrium is predominately determined by local , rather than national factors. Second, we find that it is the random shocks causing local deviations from equilibrium which reflect the integration across markets. Specifically, we find significant contemporaneous correlations of shocks across cities. Finally, the results depict a dramatic level of persistence in all markets. The model is then applied to determine whether the experience of the 1980′s represented a structural break in the underlying office market structure.