A Semiparametric Analysis of Gasoline Demand in the United States Reexamining The Impact of Price
利用美国家庭车辆级数据，通过半参数加性模型估计汽油价格弹性，发现弹性在-0.2到-0.5之间，且随价格水平变化，对政策制定者评估汽油税影响有参考价值。
The evaluation of the impact of an increase in gasoline tax on demand relies crucially on the estimate of the price elasticity. This article presents an extended application of the Partially Linear Additive Model (PLAM) to the analysis of gasoline demand using a panel of U.S. households, focusing mainly on the estimation of the price elasticity. Unlike previous semiparametric studies that use household-level data, we work with vehicle-level data within households that can potentially add richer details to the price variable. Both households and vehicles data are obtained from the Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey (RTECS) of 1991 and 1994, conducted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). As expected, the derived vehicle-based gasoline price has significant dispersion across the country and across grades of gasoline. By using a PLAM specification for gasoline demand, we obtain a measure of gasoline price elasticity that circumvents the implausible price effects reported in earlier studies. In particular, our results show the price elasticity ranges between −0.2, at low prices, and −0.5, at high prices, suggesting that households might respond differently to price changes depending on the level of price. In addition, we estimate separately the model to households that buy only regular gasoline and those that buy also midgrade/premium gasoline. The results show that the price elasticities for these groups are increasing in price and that regular households are more price sensitive compared to nonregular.