Employment and Output Effects of Observed and Unobserved Monetary Growth
在不预设其他货币非中性来源的前提下，估计了当期已观测和未观测货币增长对产出和就业的影响，为货币与商业周期关系提供新证据。
THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER IS TO PRESENT new evidence on the business cycle effects of contemporaneously observed and unobserved money growth. The analysis builds on previous work in two ways. First, and most important, in this paper the output and employment effects of unobserved money growth are estimated without maintained hypotheses about other sources of monetary nonneutrality. This approach seems appropriate because the relation between money and business cycles is acknowledged to be not well understood, for example, see the discussion in Grossman (1983) and Barro (1984). Earlier findings of neutral unobserved money growth involved test procedures that maintained either the neutrality of anticipated money growth (Barro and Hercowitz 1980), or the neutrality of observed money growth (Boschen and Grossman 1982). However the empirical measurement and neutrality of anticipated money growth are unsettled issues (see Mishkin 1982), while the empirical tests by Boschen and Grossman (1982) reject the neutrality of observed money growth. Since incomplete monetary information is a central aspect of many business cycle theories, it is of considerable interest to estimate the economic impact of contemporaneously unobserved money growth without placing undue restnctions on the moneylbusiness cycle relation. This approach also makes clear that tests of monetary nonneutrality due to incomplete information involve a comparison of coefficients on observed and unobserved monetary growth, rather than simply a finding of positive, significant coefficients on unobserved money growth.