An Empirical Study of Long-Term Unemployment in Australia
利用1984年澳大利亚月度数据，分析失业持续时间对再就业概率的影响，并发现长期失业比例上升与就业机会减少有关。
The first part of this paper concentrates on modeling transitions out of unemployment using aggregated gross flow data. Models are estimated using monthly transition probabilities for March-April 1984. This analysis produces evidence consistent with negative duration dependence but sheds no light on the role of macroeconomic factors. The second part focuses on this issue. A time-series analysis of the proportion of long-term unemployment, using data for four age and sex groups, provides evidence that a proportionately has been associated with reduction in job availability. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.