SHAKEOUTS AND MARKET CRASHES*
为市场崩盘前乐观情绪上升提供了微观基础，使用Zeira-Rob模型解释小规模年轻市场更易出现股价上涨和崩盘，并拟合1971-2001年电信行业数据。
This article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes. Small, young markets are more likely to experience stock‐price run‐ups and crashes. We use a Zeira–Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Optimism then grows rationally if traders' prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard. Such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size. The crash occurs when capacity outstrips demand. As an illustration, for the period 1971–2001 we fit the model to the Telecom sector.