Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation
评估了密歇根、利文斯顿和SPF等调查对通胀的预测表现，发现1960-80年密歇根预测更准且无偏，1980年后利文斯顿和SPF更优，但均未充分利用周期信息，强理性不成立。
The forecasting performance of widely accessible surveys of expected inflation are evaluated against naive and financial market benchmark forecasts. In the period of rising inflation (1960-80), the Michigan household consensus forecasts exhibited smaller errors than the Livingston Survey of economists and the benchmark forecasts. Unlike Livingston, the Michigan forecasts were unbiased. Since 1980, Livingston forecasts have been more accurate than Michigan, though unbiasedness is rejected in both cases. SPF forecasts, available since 1981, have been slightly superior to Livingston. In forecasting inflation, respondents generally failed to take account of cyclical conditions, and strong-form rationality is not supported.