The Impact of Intergovernmental Transfers on Education Outcomes and Poverty Reduction
利用断点回归设计，发现巴西的额外政府间转移支付使地方政府人均支出增加约20%，人均受教育年限提高约7%，识字率提高约4个百分点，贫困率降低约4个百分点。
This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on development impacts of intergovernmental transfers. Extra transfers in Brazil increased local government spending per capita by about 20 percent over a 4 year period with no evidence of crowding out own revenue or other revenue sources. Schooling per capita increased by about 7 percent and literacy rates by about 4 percentage points. In line with the effect on human capital, the poverty rate was reduced by about 4 percentage points. Somewhat noisier results also suggest that the reelection probability of local incumbent parties in the 1988 elections improved by about 10 percentage points.