Unexpected Money and Unemployment 1920 to 1983
使用基础货币供给作为货币总量，检验1920至1983年间意外货币变动对失业的影响，并解决货币供给内生性问题。
IN A SERIES OF PAPERS, BARRO ( 1977, 1978), BARRO and Rush (1980), Vittorio and Tanner (1983), Bellante, Morrell, and Zardkoohi (1982), and others have tested the rational expectations hypothesis that only unexpected changes in the money supply affect real variables. Mishkin (1982), Merrick (1983), Sheehey (1984), Small (1979), and others have criticized this work for various reasons. None of the cnticisms, however, has addressed the question of possible endogeneity of the money supply (M1) used. Moreover, most of this literature uses only data from after World War II. This paper builds on the previous literature in several directions. First, it differs from most other work by following Blejar and Fernandez (1980) and Rush (1985) in using the base money supply as the monetary aggregate. This controls for the possible endogeneity of the M1 money supply typically used by other researchers. Moreover, it allows the sample period to be extended through 1983 without worrying how the recently changing definitions of M1 affect any results. Next, a longer sample period, roughly from 1920 to 1983, is used. This time span is interesting for a couple of reasons. It allows an assessment of the role played by