THE SOURCES OF COMMODITY EXPORT REVENUE VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC ISLAND NATIONS
利用南太平洋岛国年度数据，通过向量自回归模型分析商品出口收入波动的来源，发现国内因素（尤其是GDP）与外部市场因素同等重要。
Using annual time‐series data for the selected South Pacific Island Nations (SPINs), sources of commodity export revenue variability (CERV) are analysed using forecast error decomposition and impulse response analysis based on vector autoregression (VAR) models. The evidence shows that there are different sources which contribute to CERV, although the magnitudes of the contributions are variable. External market factors are important, but it is shown that domestic factors (especially the GDP) have equal if not greater influence on CERV in the selected SPINs, particularly in Solomon Islands and Fiji.