An Engineering/Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Energy Demand and Conservation in the Pacific Northwest
利用太平洋西北地区的月度家庭用电数据，结合工程热负荷模型，估计了住宅电力需求，并分析了提价、调低恒温器和改善隔热三种节能措施的效果。
AbstractThis article estimates a new model of residential electricity demand. It differs from previous work in two ways. First, we use individual monthly billing data in a pooled time-series/cross- section framework. Second, we use an engineering/thermal-load technique to model the household space-heating technology. We estimate the model using data from the Pacific Northwest and use the results to analyze three conservation measures: a price increase, a reduction in thermostat settings, and improvement of insulation levels. We find average rates of return for insulation upgrades of 4.9% for ceilings and 8.3% for walls.KEY WORDS: Thermal modelPooled time-series/cross-sectional dataInsulation retrofitsConditional demand modeling