The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence
发现二战后美国数据中产出与价格的负相关并不能区分需求冲击还是供给冲击，因为需求驱动的凯恩斯模型也会产生负相关，因此价格-产出相关不是描述价格周期行为的好方法。
Previous studies of the cyclical behavior of prices have found that the cross-correlations between output and prices in post-WWII U.S. data are generally negative. These correlations h have been interpreted as being more consistent with supply-driven models of business cycle fluctuations than with models that focus on demand shocks. In this paper, the authors show that the signs of price-output correlations provide little information about the underlying shock; for instance, a simple Keynesian model driven by demand shocks leads to negative correlations between these variables. The authors' results suggest that price-output correlations may not be a particularly useful way to characterize the cyclical behavior of prices. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.