How much confidence should we place in efficiency estimates?
研究了普通最小二乘法和随机前沿分析在估计医院效率时的可靠性，发现点估计对模型选择敏感，个体医院效率估计不可靠，建议避免用于设定绩效目标。
Ordinary least squares (OLS) and stochastic frontier (SF) analyses are commonly used to estimate industry-level and firm-specific efficiency. Using cross-sectional data for English public hospitals, a total cost function based on a specification developed by the English Department of Health is estimated. Confidence intervals are calculated around the OLS residuals and around the inefficiency component of the SF residuals. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess whether conclusions about relative performance are robust to choices of error distribution, functional form and model specification. It is concluded that estimates of relative hospital efficiency are sensitive to estimation decisions and that little confidence can be placed in the point estimates for individual hospitals. The use of these techniques to set annual performance targets should be avoided.