Currency unions and trade: the effect is large
指出，如果货币联盟成员国与非成员国存在系统性差异，且贸易与其可观测决定因素的关系复杂，那么共同货币对贸易的影响可能被严重误测。作者使用稳健方法重新分析，发现共同货币对国际贸易的影响远小于先前估计，且精度更低。
The impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not, and if the relationship between trade and its observable determinants is complex. I argue that such complications are plausible and likely to distort the empirical results of a recent Economic Policy paper by Andrew Rose (Issue 30, 2000: pp. 7-45). Using techniques designed to be robust in this situation, I find that the effects of common currency on international trade are considerably less dramatic and much less precisely estimated. Copyright CEPR, CES, MSH, 2001.