The Secular and Cyclical Behavior of Real GDP in 19 OECD Countries, 1957–1983
用贝叶斯方法分析19个OECD国家的人均实际GDP数据，发现各国长期增长趋势差异很小，但经济周期长度和波动幅度存在显著差异。
Log per capita real gross domestic product is modeled as a third-order autoregression with a pair of complex roots whose amplitude is smaller than the amplitude of the real root. The behavior of this terms series is interpreted in terms of these two amplitudes, the periodicity of the complex roots, and the standard deviation of the disturbance. Restrictions are evaluated and inference is conducted using the likelihood principle, applying Monte Carlo integration with importance sampling. These Bayesian procedures efficiently cope with restrictions that are awkward taking a classical approach. We find very little difference in the amplitudes of real roots between countries and of complex roots relative to within-country uncertainty. There are some substantial differences in the periodicities of complex roots, and the greatest differences between countries are found in the standard deviation of the disturbance.