Fiscal Foresight, Limited Information and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks
利用叙事方法和因子增强向量自回归（FAVAR）控制财政预见和有限信息问题，发现美国国防支出冲击对产出的乘数效应大于传统VAR估计，且消费被挤入。
Abstract We quantify the impact of government spending shocks in the US. Thereby, we control for fiscal foresight, a specific limited information problem (LIP) by utilizing the narrative approach. Moreover, we surmount the generic LIP inherent in vector autoregressions (VARs) by a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. We find that a positive deficit‐financed defence shock raises output by more than in a VAR (e.g. 2.61 vs. 2.04 for peak multipliers). Furthermore, our evidence suggests that consumption is crowded in. These results are robust to variants of controlling for fiscal foresight and reveal the crucial role of the LIP in fiscal VARs.