A simple model of primary commodity price determination: 1900–80
构建并估计了1900至1980年间初级商品实际价格的决定模型，发现长期价格受世界产量和前期价格滞后项的显著影响，对研究商品周期和宏观经济的学者有参考价值。
Abstract This article specifies and estimates a model of the determination of the real price of primary commodities over the period 1900 to 1980. The empirical evidence reported in the article suggests that the long‐run behaviour of real commodity prices is significantly influenced by both demand and supply side forces, as represented by the level of world production and a distributed lag of previous real prices respectively. Notes Economics Research Centre, University of East Anglia, Norwich; and Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA. The author is indebted to Ke‐Young Chu and Tom Morrison (IMF), Alan Winters (World Bank and University of Bristol), the Editor and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments on an earlier version and to H. Singer (University of Sussex) for helpful comments on various aspects of this study. Special thanks are due to Ximena Cheetham for superb research assistance, well beyond the call of duty. All errors and views are the responsibility of the author alone.