The Recovery of World Labor Markets and the U. S. Monetary Stance: Rationale and Evidence
研究了美国货币扩张通过凯恩斯主义和货币主义两种渠道影响外国失业的机制，发现其对部分国家失业有降低作用但对其他国家无效，且可能带来通胀成本。
SUMMARY U. S. monetary impulses may be transmitted to foreign unemployment through two channels: in the first (Keynesian) channel U. S. monetary expansion boosts the U. S. demand for domestic and foreign production. This leads to an export led recovery in foreign countries. The second (monetarist) channel depends on the usual balance of payments adjustment: U. S. monetary expansion which increases foreign money supplies initiates real recovery provided foreign business cycles respond to the monetary adjustment. The spectral analysis of individual time series for U. S. and foreign unemployment over the period 1960(2) to 1980(2) reveal dominant cycles in each series coinciding with the periodicity of the business cycle. The main arguments of the study are tested in ten separate cross spectral studies of the U. S. money stock and foreign unemployment. The following general conclusion emerges: U. S. monetary expansion promises to reduce unemployment in some foreign states, but has no effect in others. This conclusion does not support the case for U. S. monetary expansion, as the effect on world unemployment is not universal, but the potential costs in the form of higher inflation remain.