Minimizing Total Cost in Scheduling Outpatient Appointments
研究门诊预约调度规则，通过仿真评估九种规则在27种环境下的表现，帮助管理者根据患者失约率、服务时间变异和每时段患者数选择最优规则以最小化医患双方空闲成本。
This paper considers various rules for scheduling appointments for medical clinic outpatients and investigates their ability to minimize a weighted sum of medical personnel's and patients' idle-time costs. It is shown that the idle times incurred by any given rule are affected by the following three “environmental factors” (in decreasing order of importance): the probability of no-show, the coefficient of variation of service times, and the number of patients per clinical session. Theoretically, an appropriate scheduling rule can be identified only if one knows the values of these parameters and the ratio between the medical personnel's and patients' idle-time costs. Under environments characterized by 27 different combinations of the three environmental factors, the performance of nine scheduling rules are evaluated using simulation. Some of the rules evaluated are original to this study. The results are presented in the form of “efficient frontiers,” together with a simple procedure for identifying the best scheduling rule for given environmental-parameter values. This rule-identification procedure is shown to be easily adaptable for circumstances with limited knowledge about the environmental factors; it also reveals that the simple Bailey-Welch individual-appointment rules are surprisingly robust.