复杂经济动态的复杂性

On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 1999
被引 377
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

探讨经济系统内生的非线性动态,强调分散主体互动、适应性学习与演化,并介绍复杂性方法如自组织临界性和演化博弈论,对研究市场模拟和政策设计有参考价值。

Abstract

Complex economic nonlinear dynamics endogenously do not converge to a point, a limit cycle, or an explosion. Their study developed out of earlier studies of cybernetic, catastrophic, and chaotic systems. Complexity analysis stresses interactions among dispersed agents without a global controller, tangled hierarchies, adaptive learning, evolution, and novelty, and out-of-equilibrium dynamics. Complexity methods include interacting particle systems, self-organized criticality, and evolutionary game theory, to simulate artificial stock markets and other phenomena. Theoretically, bounded rationality replaces rational expectations. Complexity theory influences empirical methods and restructures policy debates.

复杂经济动力学非线性动态复杂性方法有限理性