Modelling the impact of world bank policy‐based lending: The case of Malawi's agricultural sector
使用多市场农业定价模型，模拟马拉维对世界银行结构调整贷款的不同合规程度，分析其对政府预算、小农收入、玉米和出口经济作物生产及国际收支的影响。
This article uses a multi‐market agricultural pricing model to analyse the impact of the World Bank's three structural adjustment loans (SALs) to Malawi on the smallholder agricultural sector. Three price policy scenarios are simulated on the model representing zero, partial and full compliance with the Bank's SAL price policy conditionality. These scenarios are analysed in terms of their impact on: the government budget; smallholder real incomes; maize production; exportable cash crop production; and the balance of payments. Critiques of the Bank's programme and the government and Bank bargaining strategies are assessed in the light of the modelling results.