Statistical Analysis of Shapes in Macroeconomic Time Series: Is There a Business Cycle?
开发了识别宏观经济时间序列中重复形态（即经济周期）的正式方法，并检验其显著性，计算了拟合数据的线性模型产生这些形态的概率。
Burns and Mitchell considered business cycles as recurrent patterns in macroeconomic time series. This article develops formal ways of identifying the occurrence of such patterns and testing their significance. In particular, it calculates the probability that a linear time series model that fits the data well can generate the patterns observed in macroeconomic time series.