What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries
推导了一个模型，研究实际汇率、劳动生产率、贸易平衡和贸易条件的长期共同变动。发现对丹麦和挪威，外生贸易条件冲击是实际汇率长期变动的最重要决定因素；对芬兰和瑞典，需求冲击则解释了大部分长期波动。
Abstract The model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long‐run co‐movements of real exchange rates, relative labor productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with relatively higher output growth, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms‐of‐trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long‐run movements in the real exchange rate for Denmark and Norway, while demand shocks account for most of the long‐run variance in the real exchange rate for Finland and Sweden.