Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom
利用英国的新叙事数据集，识别外生税收政策变化，发现减税1%使GDP当期增长0.6%，三年累计增长2.5%，且效果与美国类似，表明税收变动对经济有持久影响。
This paper provides new estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes using a new narrative dataset for the United Kingdom. Identification is achieved by isolating “exogenous” tax policy changes using the Romer and Romer narrative strategy. I find that a 1 percent cut in taxes increases GDP by 0.6 percent on impact and 2.5 percent over three years. The findings are remarkably similar to Romer and Romer narrative estimates for the United States, reinforcing the view that tax changes have powerful and persistent effects. “Exogenous” tax changes are also shown to have contributed to important episodes in the UK business cycle.