趋势平稳的证据比我们想象的更强

The case for trend‐stationarity is stronger than we thought

Journal of Applied Econometrics · 1991
被引 48
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

回应Phillips对DeJong和Whiteman早期研究的批评,指出其模型和先验设定偏向单位根,但即使如此,数据仍更支持趋势平稳性,且该结论具有稳健性。

Abstract

Abstract In DeJong and Whiteman (1991a), we concluded that 11 of the 14 macroeconomic time‐series originally studied by Nelson and Plosser (1982) supported trend‐stationarity. Phillips (1991) criticizes this inference, claiming that our procedure is biased against integration, and that our results are sensitive to model and prior specification. However, Phillips' alternative models and priors bias his results in favour of integration; despite these biases, Phillips' own findings indicate that the data provide the greatest relative support to trend‐stationarity. This result is similar to our own (1989, 1990, 1991b) findings concerning the sensitivity of our results; the trend‐stationarity inference is remarkably robust.

趋势平稳性宏观经济时间序列单位根检验贝叶斯推断