Notes on the Rate of Industrial Growth in Italy, 1861–1913
基于新的行业生产估算，重新审视意大利统一后的工业增长，发现耐用品生产受库兹涅茨周期主导，支持1880年代繁荣的传统观点。
This article reconsiders industrial growth in post-Unification Italy in light of a new set of sector-specific production estimates. Though still in part provisional, the new series confirm that the production of durables (and related materials) was dominated by the Kuznets cycle. A similar cycle is documented in the growth rate of the residual, excluding foodstuffs, and extended by reasonable assumption to foodstuffs as well. The new series thus support the traditional view of the 1880s as a period of widespread prosperity and above-trend consumption rather than the opposite, now dominant view.This article presents the first comprehensive results of a long-term research project that owes much to the constant encouragement of Pierluigi Ciocca and Gianni Toniolo, to extended exchanges with Giovanni Federico, to the kindness of the librarians at the Bank of Italy and the Istituto centrale di statistica, and not least, for their financial support, to the Ente per gli studi monetari, bancari e finanziari “Luigi Einaudi,” the National Science Foundation, the Guggenheim Foundation, and the Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca Scientifica e Tecnologica. The usual disclaimer applies.