Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?
使用贝叶斯向量自回归模型研究美国通胀对技术冲击和货币政策冲击的调整速度,发现通胀对技术冲击调整更快,且这一差异在1980年后更明显。
This paper studies U.S. inflation adjustment speed to aggregate technology shocks and to monetary policy shocks in a medium size Bayesian vector autoregression model. According to the model estimated on the 1959–2007 sample, inflation adjusts much faster to aggregate technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks. These results are robust to different identification assumptions and measures of aggregate prices. However, by separately estimating the model over the pre- and post-1980 periods, this paper further shows that inflation adjusts much faster to technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks in the post-1980 period, but not in the pre-1980 period.