U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate
运用时间序列方法分析1978-1992年月度数据，发现汇率对美国玉米价格、销售和装运的影响在1985年前后发生结构性变化，且均为短期效应。
Time series econometric methods are applied to monthly observational data over the period 1978-1992 on real exchange rates, real corn prices, corn export sales, and corn export shipments for the United States. In-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast results are used to discern whether exchange rates have elicited systematic responses in U.S. corn prices, sales and shipments, and whether the dynamic transmission mechanisms tying these variables together have changed over time. A structural break appears to have occurred in early 1985. No cointegration is found between exchange rates, price, sales, and shipments in either sub-period. Influences are all short-run or between stationary variables. The role of the exchange rate appears to have moderated in the post-1985 period. Implications for policy analysis are discussed.