Chaotic Interest-Rate Rules
证明泰勒型利率规则（即名义利率随通胀上升且斜率大于1的规则）容易导致混沌动态，且针对当前或预期未来通胀的规则均如此。校准经济模型的分析和数值验证表明，近期提倡的避免流动性陷阱的财政政策难以解决这种复杂动态。
A growing empirical and theoretical literature argues in favor of specifying monetary policy in the form of Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules. That is, rules whereby the nominal interest rate is set as an increasing function of inflation with a slope greater than one around an intended inflation target. This paper shows that such rules can easily lead to chaotic dynamics. The result is obtained for feedback rules that depend on contemporaneous or expected future inflation. The existence of chaotic dynamics is established analytically and numerically in the context of calibrated economies. The battery of fiscal policies that has recently been advocated for avoiding global indeterminacy induced by Taylor-type interest-rate rules (such as liquidity traps) are shown to be unlikely to provide a remedy for the complex dynamics characterized in this paper.