Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: the roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention
研究了组织控制幻觉和组织注意力如何影响企业预测的偏差和误差大小，发现高控制幻觉增加正向偏差，而市场信息投资可减少偏差和误差。
Abstract Recent research shows that forecasting ability is an organizational distinctive competence. We propose and test a model accounting for interfirm differences in forecasting ability. After controlling for reciprocal effects, we find that two principal firm‐level factors (i.e., organizational illusion of control and organizational attention) influence both bias and magnitude of errors in estimates. High organizational illusion of control increases positive forecast bias. As for organizational attention, higher relative investments in market information appear to reduce positive forecast bias and magnitude of errors; they also moderate forecast bias due to illusion of control. Finally, higher relative investments in employee capability increase both negative forecast bias and, unexpectedly, magnitude of errors for the majority of observed cases. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.