The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy
分析货币与财政政策冲击对利率期限结构的影响，对比临时与永久、未预期与预期政策扰动对长短期利率、实际与名义利率的不同反应，发现未预期的永久财政扩张对长期利率影响更大，有助于解释其过度波动。
This paper analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on the term structure of interest rates. Temporary versus permanent, unanticipated versus anticipated policy disturbances and the responses of long versus short, and real versus nominal rates are contrasted. The main results are summarized in a series of propositions. Among them, the finding that an unanticipated permanent fiscal expansion impacts more on long-term rates may help explain their observed excessive volatility. The effects of structural changes on the relative variances are also discussed, with the effect that operates through the impact on private speculative behavior being emphasized. Copyright 1989 by Ohio State University Press.