Benefit Transfers in Italy: An Empirical Study of Mobility Lists in the Milan Area
利用意大利伦巴第大区的行政数据，检验对年长失业者更优的福利待遇（更长的领取期和更大的转移额）是否提高了他们从失业到永久就业的概率。结果发现，年长者的失业风险反而更低，尤其是年长女性，表明福利的负面供给效应（提高保留工资）超过了正面转移效应。
This paper uses administrative data on mobility lists in the largest economic region of Italy, Lombardia, to test whether the more favourable treatment of older workers, who can draw benefits longer and transfer a larger sum to potential employers, affects in a positive way their hazard from unemployment into a permanent job. Our reduced form estimates show that older workers who draw benefits longer have a significantly lower hazard than their younger colleagues. The reduction in the hazard from unemployment is particularly pronounced for older women in the sample. Apparently, the negative effect of the treatment on the supply side, due to a higher reservation wage, prevails in our data over the positive effect, stimulated by the larger potential benefit transfers. We conclude that, if the aim of the policy is to increase the hazard from the list into a permanent job, the treatment should be modified either by reducing passive income support or by increasing the potential for benefit transfers, or, finally, by reducing the entitlement period.