Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
使用战后美国季度数据，将时间序列分解为平滑趋势和周期成分，分析宏观经济变量的周期成分的协同运动，发现其与趋势成分的协同运动显著不同。
A study documents some features of aggregate economic fluctuations sometimes referred to as business cycles. The investigation uses quarterly data from the postwar US economy. The fluctuations studied are those that are too rapid to be accounted for by slowly changing demographic and technological factors and changes in the stocks of capital that produce secular growth in output per capita. The study proposes a procedure for representing a times series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component. The nature of the comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series is documented. It is found that these comovements are very different than the corresponding comovements of the slowly varying trend components.